Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
